“I think Liam certainly turned heads and gave us plenty to think about, in particular following his Singapore drive,” said Red Bull team boss Christian Horner to Sky Sports. “He’s doing everything possible to justify a case for a full-time drive and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his opportunity.”
“He really is a man for the future,” added Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko on ServusTV.“He certainly had the speed, and he has shown that he is good enough for Formula 1.”
The comments all point to Lawson being lined up for a drive in 2025, which rumours suggest is guaranteed in his contract. Anything else could see him snapped up by another team ahead of a 2025 season for which at least half of current drivers don’t have a contract.
He’s also proved his worth as a stand-in: Ricciardo’s unlucky practice crash at Zandvoort showed the need for a reliable reserve.
So despite his lack of an F1 seat, Lawson’s future appears to be the most secure of all the Red Bull drivers, save Max Verstappen; his potential least in doubt. The question now turns to who might be his team-mate in 2025.
Step 2: Ricciardo vs Tsunoda
AlphaTauri will undergo a total rebrand in 2024, with development of its F1 car now under the watchful eye of Red Bull. Not only will the team also be renamed, but the addition of key personnel such as former Ferrari sporting director Laurent Mekies and CEO Peter Bayer will aim to push the Faenza-based squad back into the midfield fight — the perfect proving ground for two drivers whose future remains up in the air: Ricciardo and Tsunoda.
The performance of Lawson has cast doubts over the relative ability of both, but issues with the AT04 and Ricciardo’s injuries haven’t given Red Bull enough time to assess their merits. By extending both drivers’ contracts for 2024, Horner and Marko will have plenty of chances to pit the two against each other.
A weak performance from either could see one dropped for 2025, but strong pace from both could see them continue on the grid — alongside Lawson.
After Sergio Perez‘s underwhelming 2023, Ricciardo has been frequently identified as as a possible replacement in the Red Bull team. But in order for Christian Horner to justify seating him next to Verstappen, the Aussie would have to comfortably beat Tsunoda and take his car to the very limits of its performance on a consistent basis. It’s a target not so outrageous for the Ricciardo of old.
A promotion for Ricciardo would leave an open seat for Lawson, and he may not have to wait a whole year: Red Bull is no stranger to altering its line-up mid-season.
Tsunoda — still in the early stages of his career and widely considered a long-shot for a top Red Bull seat — could be set similar goals: remaining close to his team-mate’s performance (if not beating him) and consistently racing in point-scoring positions are likely to be enough to retain his seat. But if he regularly struggles, he may fall victim to the team’s cut-throat policy and make way for Lawson.
Of course, there is one final scenario, in which neither Ricciardo or Tsunoda performs well enough for Red Bull to take notice and Perez retains his front-row seat. In that case, Lawson could be joined at AlphaTauri by another Red Bull junior driver.
Step 3: AlphaTauri’s future to be reckoned with
In any scenario, it appears that Lawson’s future in motor sport’s top flight is not dependent on performance — just time. His stand-in drives are an indication to Red Bull that it could have another star on its hands in the years to come.
The team won’t want to wait too long, particularly having seen Oscar Piastri defect to McLaren for Alpine after being left on the sidelines. But by focusing on 2025, it looks to have given itself time to evaluate its drivers before pressing ahead with two extremely strongline-ups bursting with a brilliant blend of talent, experience and/or potential (depending on who sits beside Lawson).
So, while it may seem unfair to the Kiwi right now, Red Bull looks to be taking the long view, with the aim of securing its future dominance in the midfield and at the very front of the pack.
